According to @Andre_Dragosch, markets fully price a 25 bps FOMC cut (100% probability) and 5% odds of 50 bps, with roughly 75 bps of easing by year-end 2025, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He argues the Fed is cutting into a stagflationary setup—softening labor alongside re-accelerating inflation—and projects US headline CPI could return to about 5% in 2026, a path not reflected in 1-year CPI swaps (~3.3%) or breakevens (~2.7%), source: @Andre_Dragosch. He contends this implies renewed financial repression with real yields likely turning negative from current ~+1.2% on 5-year TIPS, reducing the appeal of Treasuries and favoring scarce assets like Bitcoin (BTC), which he says is positively correlated with market inflation expectations and benefits from declining real yields, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He highlights fiscal dominance risks—federal debt growing ~7.5% per year post-Covid versus ~1% potential real growth (CBO)—suggesting 6–7% structural inflation may be needed to stabilize debt-to-GDP, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He warns the long end has already firmed, with the 10-year yield up ~38 bps since Sep 2024 despite ~100 bps of policy cuts, and flags further 10-year increases on inflation expectations and term premia as a trigger for possible yield curve control or renewed QE, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He notes cuts typically steepen the curve and accelerate money supply growth, a setup he expects to extend BTC’s bull market into 2026; traders should watch CPI swaps, 5-year TIPS real yields, the 2s10s slope, and the 10-year Treasury as key signals, source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @godbole17, the recent rise in long-end bond yields across advanced economies is not due to increased growth or inflation expectations, but rather reflects market doubts about fiscal sustainability. This environment increases the likelihood of large-scale Yield Curve Control (YCC) measures in the future. Traders should note that such macro uncertainty typically drives inflows into safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin (BTC), as evidenced by previous market cycles. Monitoring yield movements and fiscal policy announcements is crucial for anticipating volatility and potential upward momentum in gold and BTC prices (Source: Twitter/@godbole17, May 18, 2025).

According to André Dragosch, PhD (@Andre_Dragosch), if US Treasuries are no longer the de facto safe-haven asset, traders should expect significant yield curve steepening as investors avoid long-term Treasuries. This could prompt the Federal Reserve to engage in Yield Curve Control to manage long-term interest rates. Such developments are critical for traders as they indicate shifts in investor sentiment and potential policy interventions that could affect bond and equity markets. Source: André Dragosch on Twitter.